Kalshi projects Abdul El-Sayed (D) will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race, defeating Mike Rogers (R). Traders on Kalshi priced El-Sayed's chances at 99%, up from 88% when polls closed. El-Sayed's win holds Gary Peters' seat for Democrats and leaves them 2 net pickups short of a majority.
How the market moved
Kalshi's Michigan Senate market, January 2026 to Nov 3, 2026: Democrats opened the year at 77%, and El-Sayed was at 99% at projection.
El-Sayed beat Rep. Haley Stevens by less than a point in the Aug 4, 2026 primary, when his price dipped as low as 55%, and led Rogers from there.
Polls were mixed: Kalshi's polling average had El-Sayed ahead 49.2% to 44.9%, while a final New York Times/Siena poll had him up 53% to 42%.
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