France's odds to win the World Cup keep climbing. Will Sweden stand in the way?

The World Cup's round of 32 continues today as France takes on Sweden at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, with a place in the round of 16 on the line. Kalshi traders give France an 89% chance to advance, with Sweden sitting at 12%.

France enters as the tournament's most dominant side on paper, having swept Group I with three wins, 10 goals scored, and just two conceded. Sweden, by contrast, scraped through as one of the eight best third-place finishers, riding an inconsistent group stage that included a heavy loss to the Netherlands.

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France topped Group I with a perfect record, while Sweden advanced as a third-place qualifier out of Group F. The winner advances to face Paraguay in the round of 16, after the South Americans pulled off a stunning upset over Germany in their own round of 32 match, a result that reshapes the bracket for whoever wins tonight.

Didier Deschamps' side was nearly flawless through the group stage, beating Senegal 3-1, Iraq 3-0, and Norway 4-1 to finish with a perfect nine points. Ousmane Dembélé delivered the standout individual moment of the group stage, becoming the first player since 1994 to score a first-half hat-trick at a World Cup, doing it against Norway. He and Kylian Mbappé have each scored four goals so far, giving France a strike partnership that few defenses in the tournament have been able to contain.

Deschamps, who has confirmed this will be his final tournament in charge, missed the Norway win to attend his mother's funeral but returned for the knockout stage. The French squad has rallied around their longtime manager heading into the elimination rounds, looking to send him out with a deep run on the sport's biggest stage.

Graham Potter's Sweden side opened with a promising 5-1 win over Tunisia, but the campaign unraveled from there: a 5-1 defeat to the Netherlands exposed real defensive issues, and a 1-1 draw with Japan in the finale was just enough to sneak through as a third-place qualifier. Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres have carried the attacking load, combining for three goals and five assists between them, while Anthony Elanga and Yasin Ayari have each scored twice.

Potter has been candid about the scale of the challenge ahead, acknowledging that his side will need their best performance of the tournament to have a chance. Sweden hasn't kept a clean sheet in any competition in over a year, a number that will need to change fast against a France side averaging more than three goals a game so far.

Looking just one round ahead, France's odds to reach the quarterfinals sit at 81% on Kalshi, barely lower than the 89% France carries into tonight's match alone. That gap reflects just how favorable the draw looks for France even beyond Sweden, with Paraguay waiting in the round of 16 rather than a heavier favorite.

Zooming out further, France's odds to win the World Cup outright sit at 29.1% on Kalshi, the highest figure of any team left in the tournament and a number that's only climbed as the group stage wrapped up.

Sweden's own outright odds sit at 0.3%, reflecting just how steep the road ahead would be even with a win tonight. A French victory wouldn't just keep Deschamps' farewell tour alive, it would further cement Les Bleus as the team to beat on the way to the final.

Kalshi markets now predict:

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