Bitcoin is on the move again Friday.
The top crypto asset by market cap has jumped more than 5% in the last 24 hours, recently changing hands around $81,099.
As it extended its daily and monthly gain, traders have begun repricing expectations for BTC's high this month, with Kalshi's market now forecasting a September peak of $85,000.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.
How high will Bitcoin go in September?
Bitcoin was able to rally beyond $80,000 earlier this month, but fell back down after it reached a local high just above $81,000, according to data from CoinGecko.
Amid its latest rally though, Kalshi traders have become significantly more confident that BTC will be able to level up its recent price action. On Thursday afternoon, odds of BTC clicking above $85,000 before the end of September were trading around 10% as BTC was ranging just above $76,000.
Earlier in the week, the leading cryptocurrency had faltered slightly in the wake of the failed Senate procedural vote on the Clarity Act, but an early Friday morning resurgence has renewed optimism for Kalshi traders.
Now odds of BTC eclipsing $85,000 during the month stand at 42%, a jump of more than 30% in just the last day of trading.
Even bigger leaps, like a leap to above $90,000, are also up, though much less likely according to Kalshi traders, with odds of just 13%.
Should they come to pass, those leaps would buck some historical trends. September is typically one of Bitcoin’s weakest months of performance, delivering returns of -3% on average since 2013, according to CoinDesk.
Could Bitcoin surpass $100,000 before the end of the year?
Bitcoin ETFs squashed a run of outflows on Thursday, adding nearly $160 million in inflows to the count, just days after a pair of headlines provided potential headwinds to the price.
Odds for the passage of the Clarity Act plunged on Tuesday amid a failed procedural vote in the Senate.
Then, the Federal Reserve opted to hike interest rates, a move that generally creates more headwind risk for speculative assets like cryptocurrencies.
Despite that, BTC is climbing into Friday afternoon.
With the run, Kalshi traders now price the likelihood of Bitcoin exceeding $100,000 before the end of the year at 24%, up from 9% at this time last month.
If it were to eclipse the marker, it would make for the first time that BTC has traded above $100,000 since November 2025.
Odds for a positive yearly return for Bitcoin are improving
Should Bitcoin make its move to $100,000 and finish the year there, it will end the year with a positive return, a feat that was all but written off by Kalshi traders as recently as July.
BTC opened the year at nearly $89,000 and fell to as low as $58,566 in June. Over the next month, odds for it to finish the year hit a low of around 6% on Kalshi’s prediction market.
Now though, odds of a positive return have jumped to 37% as BTC rallies above $80,000.
Those odds place it in a tie with Ripple-linked XRP for the most likely to produce a positive return during 2026, an otherwise down year for crypto assets broadly.
Chainlink (LINK), Stellar Lumens (XLM), and Solana (SOL) are the next most likely according to Kalshi traders, all trading around 25% to finish the year positively.
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Image Source: André François McKenzie
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