Prediction market-implied odds suggest Texas Republicans' 38-year win streak in Senate races may come to an end.
The chances of Democrat James Talarico securing the Texas Senate seat have settled to 71% on the morning of Election Day after reaching an all-time high of 75% at the start of the week. Republican Ken Paxton, the state's three-term attorney general, has a probability of 29%, data from Kalshi's event contract shows.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.
On the eve of Election Day, Paxton returned to a Tex-Mex restaurant in Collin County where he previously announced in May receiving an endorsement from President Donald Trump, according to The Texas Tribune. “Paxton needs to carry Collin County, a fast-changing area north of Dallas, or keep it relatively close,” The Tribune said in a Monday report.
Meanwhile, Talarico, who concluded his campaign at a concert venue in Austin, “will need epic margins in Travis County, the bluest part of the state, and strong showings in the suburbs around it, including Williamson County, where he flipped a Republican-held state House seat in 2018,” the Tribune continued.
On a Monday podcast, the Democratic nominee voiced openness to working with Trump. “The promise of MAGA was that we were going to transform this government so that it delivered for the people who have been left behind, the people who have been forgotten in this country.” Talarico told Steven Bartlett, host of The Diary of a CEO. “There's still time to do that.”
“If the president wants to work with me or with any Democrat to expand healthcare access, I’m there,” added Talarico.
What polls and forecasts say
The final NYT/Siena survey of 1,215 likely voters, conducted between Oct. 23 and Nov. 1, found Talarico with an 11 percentage point advantage against Paxton in the Senate race.
The same poll also found that 49% of likely voters view Talarico favorably, versus 39% who view him unfavorably, “giving him a 10-point-edge on favorability despite an enormous, very negative ad campaign against him funded chiefly by Elon Musk, the world’s richest person,” said The New York Times.
AtlasIntel’s poll of 1,678 likely voters, conducted between Oct. 28 and Nov. 1, had Talarico with a 5.9 percentage point lead ahead of Paxton, 51.3% to 45.4%, well beyond the survey’s margin of error of 2.2 percentage points. In a third poll of 500 likely voters, fielded between Oct. 31 and Nov. 1, Emerson College found Talarico ahead by one percentage point.
The three polls alongside older surveys informed elections analyst Nate Silver’s forecast that showed Talarico up by 3.3 points.
Elsewhere, Kalshi traders’ expectation of the Democrat’s margin of victory settled to 2.7 points on Election Day, after reaching an all-time high of 3.8 points the day before.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
Follow Sage D. Young on X: @httpsageyd
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi | Image Source: Brandon Bell
The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to trade any specific product. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading event contracts and trading leveraged products, including perpetual futures, involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.
