Out of the 35 ongoing Senate races, 34 will be on average 12.7% more Democratic compared to their 2024 presidential margins.
The states expected to swing between 15 to 20 percentage points to the left make up the largest bucket, holding a 46% share. This includes Texas, Kansas, Alaska, and Ohio, key battleground states that will help decide what party controls a majority in the Senate.
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29% of the 35 are forecast to be less Republican by 10 to 15 percentage points, while 17% are projected to move left 5 to 10 percentage points. Maine is the single outlier, which will swing four percentage points toward the Republican Party, according to Kalshi’s event contracts data and the Federal Election Commission.
Still, Maine’s prediction market-implied odds show Democratic challenger Troy Jackson with a 44-point cushion against Republican Susan Collins who is running for a sixth term. The incumbent senator’s chances have dropped double digits in the past week.
Controlling the Senate
“Mr. Trump enters the midterms on Tuesday with his approval rating near its lowest level ever, dragged down by the unpopular war in Iran and rising consumer prices that have outpaced wages and left many Americans struggling to cover their basic needs,” The New York Times reported on Monday.
“The president’s diminished standing and the country’s gloomy mood have given Democrats hope that voters will hand them majorities in Congress, which is controlled by Republicans,” The Times continued.
Prediction market odds of Democrats controlling the Senate stand at a record level of 75%, a 10.5 percentage point increase in the past week, putting the Republican Party’s chance at 25%, a new low for the party looking to defend its hold over the upper chamber of Congress.
Traders forecast Democrats to hold 53 Senate seats after today’s Election Day.
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