The World Cup's round of 32 continues today as Norway takes on Ivory Coast at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, with a place in the round of 16 on the line. This is the first-ever meeting between the two nations, and on paper it's one of the toughest matches in the round to call.
Norway brings the bigger names and the tournament's most lethal finisher, while Ivory Coast brings the better defensive record and a squad that's been building toward this moment all tournament. Both teams finished second in their groups, and both are chasing a piece of history their countries have never managed to secure.
Kalshi traders give Norway a 63% chance to advance, with Ivory Coast sitting at 38%.
What's at stake
Lose today and the tournament is over. Norway finished second in Group I behind France, while Ivory Coast claimed second in Group E behind Germany. Whoever wins today advances to face Brazil in the round of 16, after the five-time champions edged past Japan in their own round of 32 match.
Norway's group-stage run
Norway, back at the World Cup for the first time since 1998, opened in style with a 4-1 win over Iraq before edging Senegal 3-2 in one of the tournament's most entertaining matches.
With qualification already secured, coach Ståle Solbakken rested several key players, including Erling Haaland, for the final group game, a 4-1 loss to France that did little to dent the team's confidence. Haaland scored four goals across Norway's first two matches and didn't need to play in the third, putting him squarely in the Golden Boot conversation.
Solbakken has been unequivocal about his star striker's quality. After the Iraq win, the Norway coach called Haaland the "best goalscorer in the world," a label Haaland himself politely declined, pointing instead to Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappé.
Martin Ødegaard has also been instrumental, supplying two assists from midfield and giving Norway's attack a second dimension beyond its talisman up top.
Ivory Coast's group-stage run
Ivory Coast reached the knockout stage for the first time in the country's history, doing it with a tighter, more controlled campaign than Norway's. The Elephants opened with a disciplined 1-0 win over Ecuador, pushed group winners Germany deep into stoppage time before falling 2-1, then closed out the group with a 2-0 win over Curaçao behind a Nicolas Pépé brace.
Where Norway leaned on individual brilliance, Ivory Coast leaned on structure, conceding just twice across three matches under coach Emerse Faé.
Nineteen-year-old winger Yan Diomande has emerged as one of the breakout stars of the tournament, with several of Europe's top clubs reportedly tracking him ahead of a summer move. His head-to-head battle with Norway's Antonio Nusa, his current club teammate at RB Leipzig, is one of the more intriguing individual matchups of the round.
Reaching the quarterfinals
Looking just one round ahead, Norway's odds to reach the quarterfinals sit at 29% on Kalshi, a figure that accounts for both today's match and a daunting round of 16 test against Brazil. That's a steep drop from the 63% Norway carries into the Ivory Coast match alone, underscoring just how much tougher the bracket gets from here.
The bigger picture
Zooming out further, Norway's odds to win the World Cup outright sit at 2.1% on Kalshi, well behind the field's heavyweights but still meaningfully ahead of Ivory Coast's 0.2%.
France remains the clear favorite at 29%, with Argentina next at 20.9%. Neither Norway nor Ivory Coast has ever reached a World Cup quarterfinal, so simply matching that mark would already be a landmark achievement for whichever side comes out on top tonight.
Kalshi markets now predict:
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi | Image Source: MichaelEmilio
This article may contain content generated with the assistance of artificial intelligence. It is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading, financial, or legal advice. Your opinions or market commentary are not recommendations. Trading involves risk and you should carefully evaluate your financial situation and consult a qualified advisor before making any trading decisions. Kalshi is not affiliated with FIFA or the 2026 World Cup.
