After what was perhaps the most thrilling quarterfinal round in Olympic hockey history, Team USA is set to take on Slovakia in the semifinals. A win will secure the United States’ first medal in men’s hockey since 2010 in Vancouver.
The playoff field has whittled down to just four countries (Canada and Finland play at 10:40 a.m. ET). USA and Slovakia will face off for the second semifinal match; puck drop is scheduled for Friday, 3:10 p.m. ET at Milano Santagiulia IHO Arena.
At this time, Kalshi traders price the United States as a substantial favorite versus Slovakia. Be that as it may, Slovakia has already pulled off more than one upset in this tournament.
Let’s dive into the specifics for today’s Slovakia-USA semifinal.
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This is an opinion and not financial advice. The author cannot trade on Kalshi.
Men’s Olympic Hockey Semifinals: Slovakia vs USA
As previously mentioned, the Americans currently have an 88% chance of defeating Slovakia. The team has been particularly dominant at these Winter Games. So far, they have outscored their opponents 18-6 en route to a perfect 4-0 record in Milan.
Slovakia enters this contest against the United States with a 3-1 record, suffering its lone loss to Sweden. The Slovaks showcased a gritty effort in their quarterfinal victory versus Germany, winning 6-2. But now they must prepare for their toughest challenge of the tournament.
Meanwhile, Team USA’s defense has been superb. Only one opponent has scored multiple goals against them, which was Denmark. Most recently, the U.S. used overtime to bounce Sweden in the quarterfinals thanks to a walk-off goal by defenseman Quinn Hughes (who is now trading at 13¢ to be named tournament MVP).
After four games, Slovakia’s front lines have been led by Juraj Slafkovsky. The Montreal Canadiens forward has produced seven total points in the current Winter Olympics, powered by three goals. Still, American defensemen Noah Hanifin, Brock Faber, and others will make it a priority to neutralize Slafkovsky.
Conversely, Slovakia will have plenty to keep busy with in Team USA’s dynamic offensive attack. The American roster features several NHL All-Stars, including Jack Eichel, Matthew Tkachuk, and Auston Matthews. Sweden managed to contain this bunch, but Slovakia is not defending at the same level as the Swedes.
Slovakia has been an underdog since arriving in Milan. Per Kalshi, the Slovaks displayed only a 6% likelihood to medal as recently as February 9; they are now trading for 38¢ in that same market.
Gold medal winner
USA is still listed as the second favorite to win gold in men’s ice hockey, showing a 46% chance to go all the way. Notably, the Americans are in search of their first gold medal in over four decades. The U.S. has not placed first in this event since 1980 (Lake Placid).
As you might imagine, Canada remains the gold-medal favorite at Kalshi. The Canadians boast a price tag of 50¢ to win the Olympic tournament, and when surveying their roster, it is simple to see why. Forwards Connor McDavid (11) and Macklin Celebrini (9) are the top-two point scorers in Milano, and they are just the tip of the Canadian iceberg.
The two remaining squads, Finland and Slovakia, are both priced under 10¢ to win gold in men’s hockey. Moreover, Finland has just a 22% probability to take down Canada in Friday’s early semifinal; that contest is set for 10:40 a.m. ET.
The takeaway
Kalshi markets now forecast:
Men’s Olympic Ice Hockey
To win Men’s Olympic Ice Hockey Gold Medal:
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