Ahead of this Sunday’s pro football championships, most can agree that 2025-26 has produced a season for the ages. But before we get to the Big Game, the league will give out its 2026 player awards, including Offensive Rookie of the Year.
When surveying the AP Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY) market at Kalshi, Carolina wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan leads with traders by a substantial margin. McMillan’s on-field success was undeniable this season, but even so, there were numerous rookies that made strong impressions.
Keep in mind that several publications give out Offensive Rookie of the Year awards, but Kalshi’s market is solely dependent on results from the Associated Press.
Let’s dive into pro football’s OROY market.
Not trading advice. This article is for informational purposes only. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NFL or Super Bowl LX.
Kalshi’s traders are pricing star wideout Tetairoa McMillan (95¢) as a runaway favorite to be named OROY.
McMillan, a first-round draft pick from the University of Arizona, had a historic campaign in 2025-26. In his first year as a professional, McMillan dazzled en route to 70 receptions and 1,014 yards. The latter figure paced all rookies this season while setting a franchise record for Carolina (as the most receiving yards by a rookie).
Standing at 6-foot-5, McMillan brings a rare blend of skills, size and athleticism. His 34-inch vertical jump makes it nearly impossible for smaller defensive backs to contend. As such, McMillan posted a 57.4% catch rate in addition to converting 55 first downs.
McMillan has both the stats and big-play film to support his case. At Kalshi, he saw his largest jump following his performance on December 21, wherein he logged 73 yards, scoring his seventh and final touchdown. McMillan entered that contest with a 20.4% probability to win OROY, but by December 26, he surged to 74.4%.
As the first quarterback off the board at the 2025 draft, New York signal caller Jaxson Dart displayed both talent and tenacity this season. Dart’s fiery play earned him respect around the league, but even as this market’s second favorite, he shows only a 5% chance to win the OROY award at Kalshi.
As the 25th overall pick out of Ole Miss, Dart wasn’t initially named the starter this year. However, following his first start in Week 4, he did not relinquish the job.
Dart displayed impressive dual-threat capabilities this past season. In 14 appearances, he threw for 2,272 yards and 15 touchdowns (five INT). He completed 63.7% of his passes while earning a 91.7 passer rating to lead all rookies. Subsequently, Dart added 487 yards and nine scores on the ground.
Quarterbacks have earned the OROY award in back-to-back seasons (and four of the past six) at this point. Evidently, Dart has the best chance, even if a long shot, to continue that streak.
The field
There are a few other players that have been officially nominated for AP Offensive Rookie of the Year. New Orleans quarterback Tyler Shough, Tampa Bay receiver Emeka Egbuka and New England running back Treveyon Henderson were also nominated for their stellar efforts in 2025-26.
Still, none show a winning probability above 1% at Kalshi aside from Shough (3%).
The takeaway
A receiver has not won the AP OROY designation since 2022 (Garrett Wilson), but that brief drought will most likely come to an end with McMillan.
The towering wideout certainly has a bright future ahead, and with emerging talent around him in Carolina, we should be seeing plenty of T-Mac in the coming seasons. Look for McMillan to continue making jaw-dropping catches.
The Offensive Rookie of the Year (and other awards) will be announced on Thursday, February 5 at the Palace of Fine Arts in San Francisco.
(Which brands will advertise during the Big Game 2026? See Kalshi’s markets here.)
Kalshi markets now forecast:
2025-26 AP Offensive Rookie of the Year:
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The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.