Norway and France meet today in Boston in a Group I finale that will decide who tops the group, with both sides already through to the round of 32. The winner avoids a runner-up path that includes Ivory Coast, while the loser settles for the runner-up route instead.
Kalshi traders give France a 71% chance to win today's match, with a tie at 17% and Norway at 13%.
Kalshi is not affiliated with FIFA or the 2026 World Cup.
What's at stake
Both teams have already clinched their spot in the knockout stage, so today is strictly about seeding. Topping Group I sends the winner against a third-place finisher from Group C, D, F, G, or H in the round of 32, a notably softer draw than the runner-up's path, which leads to a meeting with Ivory Coast, who upset Ecuador's unbeaten run to win their own group finale.
France's perfect start
France has won both of its Group I matches, opening with a 3-1 victory over Senegal before a 3-0 win over Iraq. Kylian Mbappe scored twice in each match, taking his World Cup tally to four goals through two games and pulling him level with Erling Haaland in the race for the Golden Boot, one behind tournament leader Lionel Messi.
Mbappe also became France's all-time leading scorer against Senegal, breaking the deadlock with a first-time finish before sealing the win with a 30-yard strike in stoppage time. Reflecting on the record, Mbappe said it was about writing more of his country's history. Against Iraq, his second goal moved him level with Miroslav Klose's all-time World Cup scoring record.
Norway's perfect start
Norway has matched France's record, beating Iraq 4-1 in its opener before edging past Senegal 3-2. Haaland has scored in every match, including a brace against Senegal that took his international tally to 59 goals in just 52 appearances for his country.
Norway coach Stale Solbakken praised his star forward's efficiency after the win over Senegal. The Vikings have lost only once in their last 18 matches and are making their first World Cup appearance since 1998, when they reached the round of 16.
Group I standings
France enters today level with Norway on points after two wins apiece, but ahead on goal difference at plus-5 to plus-4. A win for either side settles first place outright, while a draw would leave France on top by that goal-difference margin.
The bigger picture
Beyond today's match, France's odds to win the World Cup sit at 20% on Kalshi, the clearest favorite in the field after two commanding group-stage wins. Argentina sits second at 15.7%, with Spain just behind at 13.4%. Norway, despite its own unbeaten run, remains a deep long shot at 2.6%, reflecting how much weight the market still puts on today's result and the knockout draw that follows.
Kalshi markets now predict:
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