Belgium and Senegal meet today in Seattle for a place in the World Cup's round of 16, with the Red Devils looking to build on a late group-stage turnaround and the Lions of Teranga chasing their best tournament run since 2002.
Kickoff at Lumen Field sits in the middle of a busy Wednesday of round of 32 matches, coming after England's 2-1 comeback win over DR Congo earlier today and ahead of the USA's clash with Bosnia and Herzegovina tonight.
Kalshi traders give Belgium a 65% chance to advance today, with Senegal sitting at 34%.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.
What's at stake
The winner advances to a round of 16 matchup and keeps alive a run that neither side has managed in years. Belgium is chasing redemption after a group-stage exit in Qatar four years ago, while Senegal is hunting its deepest World Cup finish since the 2002 quarterfinals. The two nations have never met at a World Cup before.
Belgium chase their golden generation's redemption
Belgium needed a big finish to top Group G, following draws with Egypt (1-1) and Iran (0-0) with a 5-1 win over New Zealand on the final matchday. FIFA.com noted the run made Belgium just the second European nation, after England in 1990, to win a World Cup group without winning either of its first two matches.
No Belgian has recorded more World Cup goal involvements since 1966 than Romelu Lukaku after his goal and assist in that finale, according to Goal.com. Head coach Rudi Garcia struck a satisfied tone afterward: "we wanted to finish first in the group stage and we succeeded," the Associated Press reported.
Senegal arrives without its first-choice keeper
Senegal stumbled to defeats against France and Norway before a 5-0 demolition of Iraq secured its place as the tournament's last third-place qualifier, edging Iran on goal difference. Reserve goalkeeper Mory Diaw is set to start again after first-choice Édouard Mendy was ruled out with a knee injury suffered in the Norway loss, according to the Associated Press.
Ismaila Sarr leads the squad with three goals so far, and head coach Pape Thiaw sounded confident heading into Seattle: "Belgium is a very strong team with huge individual talents and a very solid collective," he said, per sportnewsafrica.com.
The road to the quarterfinals
Beyond today's match, Kalshi's knockout-stage market prices Belgium at 31% to reach the quarterfinals and Senegal at 19%. Reaching the quarterfinals would be Belgium's deepest World Cup run since finishing third in 2018, while for Senegal it would be a first quarterfinal appearance since 2002, when the country reached the same stage as first-time qualifiers.
The bigger picture
Zoomed out, neither side is a title threat on Kalshi's outright market: Belgium sits at 1.3% to win the World Cup and Senegal at 0.4%, both dwarfed by France's tournament-leading 34.3%. France's title odds have been climbing since the group stage wrapped, a trend showing no signs of slowing as the knockout rounds narrow the field.
Kalshi markets now predict:
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This article may contain content generated with the assistance of artificial intelligence. It is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, or legal advice. Any opinions or market commentary are not recommendations. Trading involves risk and you should carefully evaluate your financial situation and consult a qualified advisor before making any trading decisions. Kalshi is not affiliated with FIFA or the 2026 World Cup.
