One of America’s most famous sporting rivalries will renew on Tuesday when the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees square off in an American League Wild Card Series.
Kalshi traders price the Yankees as favorites in the best-of-three series, with odds trading at 59% ahead of Tuesday’s series opener.
On the other side of the bracket, the Houston Astros will host the Chicago White Sox, favored at 58% to defeat the feel-good story White Sox, who bounced back from a 102-loss season in 2025.
With both best-of-three series beginning on Tuesday, here’s a closer look at each matchup and how the American League playoff bracket shapes up from here.
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New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox odds: Yanks are home favorites
The New York Yankees might be without their best player during their Wild Card Series with the Boston Red Sox, but Kalshi traders still make them the favorite.
As it stands, the Yanks are 59% favorites to win the series and are 56% favorites to take game one of the series on Tuesday. Will Aaron Judge anchor the Yankees lineup when they take the field on Tuesday? No one knows for certain.
Judge hit indoors with the team on Sunday and was slated to take live batting practice on Monday, but a decision about his place on the Wild Card roster has not yet been determined.
The Yankees got to this spot in large part without their captain, who only played seven games after fracturing a rib earlier this season.
The Red Sox have their own health question marks. The roster inclusion of 2025 Cy Young finalist Garrett Crochet is still undecided as of Monday afternoon.
Nevertheless, the teams will throw out more than capable lineups and starting pitchers on Tuesday. Projected starters in game one are AL Cy Young favorite Cam Schlittler for New York and left-hander Payton Tolle for the Red Sox, both of whom dominated opposing hitters throughout the season.
It will not get any easier for hitters in game two, when the teams can run out Max Fried (NYY) and Sonny Gray (BOS).
Neither team finished the year with a string of momentum, having both finished their final ten games with a 5-5 record. But the Yankees were the stronger team throughout the year, finishing 6.5 games ahead of the Red Sox in the standings. Nevertheless, their head-to-head encounters showcased evenly matched teams, with New York edging out Boston 7-6 in the 13 games.
Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox odds: Astros hold edge after sneaking into playoffs
The Astros were on the outside looking in when the final week of the regular season began. But they played their final games one game better than the Texas Rangers, locking up the AL West crown and finishing as the worst of the division winners in the American League.
Despite that, the Astros are favored in their matchup against the Chicago White Sox, who were squarely in the playoff race for much of the season.
Kalshi traders make the Astros 58% favorites in the series, which will be played in their home at Daikin Park in Houston. The home team will be buoyed by likely AL MVP, Yordan Alvarez, who finished the season as the league leader in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage.
Alvarez’s squad is priced at 54% to win their opening game on Tuesday, but they will not take the field behind their ace Hunter Brown. Instead, with Brown on three days’ rest, the Astros will use a bullpen game on Tuesday according to manager Joe Espada. That leaves Brown to pitch in game two, a potential elimination game depending on the outcome of Tuesday’s affair.
It is likely the White Sox could follow suit, opting to use their bullpen, which threw the most innings in the league this year, to mix-and-match through game one. The White Sox were one of the feel-good stories of Major League Baseball this season, but fell from their perch atop the AL Central during September, yielding the division title to the Cleveland Guardians as they finished the month with a 12-13 record.
The Astros did not fare much better, finishing just 11-13 in September while officially claiming the title as the “worst-ever MLB playoff team” thanks to their 81-81 record.
Rays, Yankees most likely champions from American League
Heading into the Wild Card Series, the Tampa Bay Rays and the New York Yankees are the most likely American League teams to hoist the World Series trophy, according to Kalshi traders.
Odds for the Rays, who have a bye during the upcoming round, sit at 9.7% on Tuesday. The Yankees on the other hand are trading around 9.0% as they prepare for their Wild Card Series with the Boston Red Sox.
While their odds make them the third and fourth favorites, respectively, they pale in comparison to the probabilities Kalshi traders have assigned the National League’s best teams, the Dodgers and the Brewers. The senior circuit leaders are priced at 31.0% and 16.1% to win the World Series.
Should the Yankees find their way through the Red Sox, they will have to defeat the Rays in a best-of-five series in the ALDS. The winner of the White Sox and Astros series will head to Cleveland, where the Guardians will maintain home field advantage in the best-of-five clash.
Despite receiving the AL’s second bye, Kalshi traders give the Guardians just 5.9% odds to win the World Series. Boston, Houston, and the Chicago White Sox all hold odds of less than 5%.
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