Illinois primary odds: Kalshi traders price clear favorites in key Chicago races

It’s Primary Election Day in Illinois, with several heavily contested congressional races playing out in the Chicagoland area. With less than an hour to go before polls close, here’s a last-minute look at what Kalshi markets are forecasting in three key Democratic House primaries.

(Click here for Kalshi’s Primary Election Hub.)

^{Not trading advice. For informational purposes only.}

Chicago City Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin is the current frontrunner in the Kalshi market for Illinois’ 7^th Congressional District. Traders price her chances of winning at 73%. State Rep. La Shawn Ford, who received an endorsement from outgoing U.S. Rep. Danny Davis, follows with a 28% chance, and Jason Friedman is priced at 5%.

Conyears-Ervin ran for the 7^th Congressional District seat two years ago but lost to Davis in the Democratic primary. The New York Times reports that “several political groups with ties to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC),” like the United Democracy Project, Elect Chicago Women, and Affordable Chicago Now have poured money into several Illinois races. The United Democracy Project spent $5 million in ads supporting Conyears-Ervin’s campaign.

Traders believe that former 8^th Congressional District Rep. Melissa Bean will take back the seat she lost in 2010. She’s priced on the market at 80%, followed by 2022 candidate Junaid Ahmed at 16%, and two-term Cook County Commissioner Kevin Morrison at 4%.

Some of the same PACs that have spent money on Conyears-Ervin’s campaign have also provided financial support to Bean. Axios reported that Elect Chicago Women and the pro-artificial intelligence PAC Think Big America spent $4 million on Bean’s campaign.

Jesse Jackson Jr., the son of the late civil rights leader Rev. Jesse Jackson, who died in February, is mounting a political comeback in the House primary for Illinois’ 2^nd Congressional District. Traders price Jackson’s election chances at 76%, followed by Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller at 29% and State Sen. Robert Peters at 3%.

Jackson served as the representative for the 2^nd Congressional District from 1995 to 2012. The Chicago Sun-Times reports that Jackson originally said he left the seat to deal with personal mental health issues. However, he later pleaded guilty to misusing campaign funds and served 17 months in federal prison.

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