Yesterday, lawmakers left Washington a day before the shutdown deadline, despite an unresolved budget fight over DHS funding. The question is no longer whether a shutdown will begin, but how long it will last.
Traders are a little more optimistic about the length of this partial shutdown compared to the record-setting 43-day shutdown that occurred toward the end of last year. Traders put the odds at 81% that the shutdown lasts at least 15 days. Another market gives it a 93% chance of the shutdown reaching the 10-day mark. Traders also give an 18% chance that the partial shutdown will last as long as the Oct. 1-Nov. 12, 2025 shutdown.
All told, the current Kalshi forecast is for a 27-day shutdown. That’s up from a forecast of 18 days as of Friday morning.
When will DHS receive full funding?
Traders still think DHS will receive full funding sooner rather than later, but those odds seem to be slowly shrinking.
The market shows a 37% chance that DHS will receive all of its funding before March 10. Traders also price a 50% chance that DHS will be fully funded by March 20.
What’s causing the partial shutdown?
Democratic and Republican lawmakers are at an impasse on funding for DHS in the wake of several high-profile killings by ICE agents in Minnesota.
Democratic lawmakers, including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, released a statement in late January before the first funding showdown vowing not to support any additional funds for ICE. He called the actions committed against U.S. citizens by ICE agents “appalling” and called them “unacceptable in any American city.”
Both sides avoided a full shutdown by breaking up an appropriations bill into separate bills. The latest attempt at passing a funding bill in the Senate failed to meet the 60-vote threshold by 52–47, with Dem. Sen. John Fetterman casting the only “yes” vote from the left side of the Senate aisle.
All but the DHS funding bill passed. The Associated Press reported that Democratic lawmakers demanded new restrictions on ICE agents and other federal law enforcement agencies such as the use of judicial warrants. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said the concession “is going to be very hard for the White House or Republicans” to support.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now forecast:
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