Democrat Abdul El-Sayed's probability of winning the Michigan Senate race has climbed to as high as 80% on the morning of Election Day, a double-digit improvement from one week ago when his chances sat at 68.5%.
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Meanwhile, the odds of Republican Mike Rogers securing a victory have fallen to a new low of 20%, data from Kalshi's event contract shows.
The race is Rogers’ second opportunity after he narrowly lost Michigan’s Senate election in 2024 when President Donald Trump was on the ballot. “This time, the former congressman must win without Trump as a galvanizing force at the top of the ballot and as high gas prices and other costs have weighed on Republicans nationally,” the Associated Press said.
Michigan last elected a Republican to the Senate in 1994.
Raising $2.4 million in a single day
El-Sayed's climb in prediction market-implied odds comes as his Senate campaign raised over $2.4 million on Sunday, after his former primary opponent and Democratic Congresswoman Haley Stevens, who previously supported El-Sayed, broke from her party and endorsed Rogers two days before Election Day.
The haul is the biggest fundraising day of El-Sayed's campaign, according to a press release. “This haul will go towards ensuring Abdul’s message — money out of politics, money in your pocket, and Medicare for All —reaches every Michigander in every corner of the state during this critical final stretch,” the campaign said in a statement.
The fallout between El-Sayed and Stevens centered on an ad produced by a PAC that supported the Democratic Senate candidate and had connected high grocery prices with the nation’s foreign aid to Israel. The New York Times said in a November 1, 2026, report, “The breach also represents a major fissure coursing through the Democratic Party about what its relationship with Israel and Jewish donors should be.”
“Dr. El-Sayed, if he wins on Tuesday and enters the Senate in January, would be the most anti-Israel U.S. senator since the formation of the Jewish state 78 years ago,” The Times continued.
Lean Democrat
The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper, announced on Monday that the open Senate seat representing Michigan has moved to “Lean Democrat” from “Toss Up.”
“We are basing our final ratings chance on new public and private polling, including a New York Times/Siena poll over the weekend that put the race at an 11-point spread for El-Sayed,” said Jessica Taylor, an editor at The Cook Political Report.
“Operatives on both sides don’t expect the race to be a double-digit blowout, but the Times survey notably also showed that El-Sayed has shored up his weakness with Black voters, which could have otherwise been his undoing,” Taylor continued.
Elsewhere, Decision Desk HQ, which combines latest polling, campaign finance, and prediction market data, shows that Democrat Abdul El-Sayed has a 75% chance of winning Michigan.
On Tuesday, Kalshi traders forecast El-Sayed’s margin of victory in Michigan as high as 5.3 percentage points, before settling at 4.8 points. This matters, because the margin of victory in the race will inform the Democrats’ vision for the upcoming presidential election in two years.
The takeaway:
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