Kalshi projects Chris Pappas (D) will win the 2026 New Hampshire Senate race, defeating John E. Sununu (R). Traders on Kalshi priced Pappas' chances at 99%, up from 97% when polls closed. Pappas' win holds Jeanne Shaheen's seat for Democrats, makes him the first openly gay man elected to the Senate and leaves Democrats 3 net pickups short of a majority.
This projection does not imply market resolution or that the race has been called.
How the market moved
Kalshi's New Hampshire Senate market, January to Nov 3: Democrats opened the year above 80%, and Pappas was at 99% at projection.
Pappas cleared the Democratic field early. Sununu, whose father and brother both served as governor, won the Republican nomination for the open seat.
Nov 2, 2026: Pappas climbed to 94% on the eve of the election
A New Hampshire Institute of Politics survey had Pappas up 7 points among likely voters, but only 1 point among voters 50 and older.
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