Kalshi projects Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) will win the 2026 Georgia governor race, defeating Rick Jackson (R). Traders on Kalshi priced Bottoms' chances at 99%, up from 74% when polls closed. The win flips a Republican-held governorship and makes Bottoms the first Black woman elected governor of any state.
How the market moved
Kalshi's Georgia governor market, through Nov 3, 2026: Jackson peaked at 55% on Oct 11, 2026, and Bottoms was at 99% at projection.
Bottoms, the former mayor of Atlanta, faced Jackson, a health care executive who largely self-funded his campaign and beat Lt. Gov. Burt Jones in the June 2026 runoff, for the seat term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp is leaving.
Oct 11, 2026: Jackson peaked at 55%
Polls stayed close: a State Navigate poll taken Oct 23-27 had Bottoms up 50% to 47%, and Kalshi's margin market forecast a 2.6-point Bottoms win.
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