Kalshi projects Jocelyn Benson (D) will win the 2026 Michigan governor race, defeating John James (R). Traders on Kalshi priced Benson's chances at 99%, up from 97% when polls closed. Benson's win keeps Gretchen Whitmer's seat in Democratic hands for a third straight term.
This projection does not imply market resolution or that the race has been called.
How the market moved
Kalshi's Michigan governor market, through Nov 3: Benson traded above 90% through late October, and Benson was at 99% at projection.
Benson, the secretary of state, faced James, a congressman making his third statewide run, for the seat term-limited Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is leaving. Former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan withdrew his independent bid in May 2026.
Oct 26, 2026: Benson traded at 91%
Oct 29, 2026: Benson reached 93% as polls showed her up about 8 points
The RealClearPolitics average had Benson ahead 51.3% to 43.7%.
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