Kalshi projects Rob Sand (D) will win the 2026 Iowa governor race, defeating Zach Lahn (R). Traders on Kalshi priced Sand's chances at 99%, up from 96% when polls closed. The win flips a Republican-held governorship, the first Democratic win in Iowa since Chet Culver in 2006.
These projections do not imply market resolution or that races have been called.
How the market moved
Kalshi's Iowa governor market, through Nov 3, 2026: Democrats were at 64% after the June 2, 2026 primary, and Sand was at 99% at projection.
Sand, the state auditor and the only Democrat to win statewide in Iowa in 2022, ran against Lahn, a businessman and farmer, for the seat Gov. Kim Reynolds is leaving.
Oct 20, 2026: Sand reached 88%
Oct 30, 2026: Sand held at 85% even as Iowa's Senate race tightened
Polls agreed with the market: Kalshi's polling average had Sand ahead 51.2% to 44.0%, and its margin market forecast a Sand win of about 5 points.
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