Who won the 2026 South Carolina Senate race?

Kalshi projected Democrat Annie Andrews to win the 2026 South Carolina Senate race, defeating Republican Darline Graham. It is the first Democratic Senate win in South Carolina since 1998. Kalshi traders priced Andrews at 99% at the time of projection.

What were the odds for the 2026 South Carolina Senate race on Kalshi?

Kalshi traders priced Annie Andrews at 99% to win the 2026 South Carolina Senate race, up from 39% when polls closed on Election Day.

Who did Annie Andrews run against in the 2026 South Carolina Senate race?

Annie Andrews faced Darline Graham, the sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, who died in July 2026 after winning the June 2026 Republican primary. Gov. Henry McMaster appointed Darline Graham, who then won an Aug 25, 2026 runoff to take his place on the ballot.

How did the South Carolina Senate market move on Kalshi?

Republicans held at 85 to 87% through July 2026. Andrews traded as low as 15% in mid-October 2026, then climbed to 33% by November 2, 2026, as polls showed a one- to three-point race.

When was the last time a Democrat won a South Carolina Senate race?

The last Democratic Senate win in South Carolina before 2026 was in 1998. Andrews' projected win ends a nearly three-decade Republican hold on the state's Senate seats.

Annie Andrews wins South Carolina Senate race: Kalshi projection

Kalshi projects Annie Andrews (D) will win the 2026 South Carolina Senate race, defeating Darline Graham (R). Traders on Kalshi priced Andrews' chances at 99%, up from 39% when polls closed. The win flips a Republican-held seat, the first Democratic Senate win in South Carolina since 1998, and leaves Democrats 1 net pickup short of a majority.

^{These projections do not imply market resolution or that races have been called}^.

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How the market moved

Kalshi's South Carolina Senate market, July 2026 to Nov 3, 2026: Republicans were at 85% after Lindsey Graham's death in July 2026, and Andrews was at 99% at projection.

Sen. Lindsey Graham died on July 11, 2026 after winning the June 2026 primary. Gov. Henry McMaster appointed his sister, Darline Graham, who then beat Rep. Ralph Norman in an Aug 25, 2026 runoff to take his place on the ballot. Republicans stayed split after the runoff, with Norman declining to campaign for Graham, and Trump visited the state three times to rally for her. Either nominee would be the first woman elected to the Senate from South Carolina.

Jul 14, 2026: Republicans held at 85% to keep the seat days after Graham's death
Jul 23, 2026: Republicans rose to 87% after Trump endorsed Darline Graham
Oct 14, 2026: Andrews traded at 15%, a price Chris Cillizza called too low
Oct 28, 2026: Graham slipped to 75% as polls showed a one- to three-point race
Nov 2, 2026: Graham slipped to 67%, with Andrews at 33%, on the eve of the election

Polls were far closer than the market: a New York Times/Siena poll had the race tied at 48%, and Kalshi's polling average had Graham up about 1.5 points.

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