Kalshi projects David Crowley (D) will win the 2026 Wisconsin governor race, defeating Tom Tiffany (R). Traders on Kalshi priced Crowley's chances at 99%, up from 95% when polls closed. Crowley's win keeps Tony Evers' seat in Democratic hands and makes him Wisconsin's first Black governor.
How the market moved
Kalshi's Wisconsin governor market, August 2026 to Nov 3, 2026: Republicans were at 62% before the Aug 11, 2026 primary, and Crowley was at 99% at projection.
Crowley, the Milwaukee County executive, beat progressive Francesca Hong by less than half a point in the August 2026 primary after traders had priced Hong above 95%. Tiffany, a congressman, won the Republican nomination easily.
Aug 12, 2026: Crowley opened at 78% after his upset over Hong
The final Marquette Law School poll had Crowley up 51% to 44% among likely voters, and Kalshi's margin market forecast a 5-point Crowley win.
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