Kalshi projects Adam Hamilton (D) will win the 2026 Kansas Senate race, defeating Roger Marshall (R). Traders on Kalshi priced Hamilton's chances at 99%, up from 77% when polls closed. The win flips a Republican-held seat, the first Democratic Senate win in Kansas since 1932, and adds to the new Democratic majority.
How the market moved
Kalshi's Kansas Senate market, September 2026 to Nov 3, 2026: Marshall was at 82.8% on Sept 5, 2026, and Hamilton was at 99% at projection.
Hamilton is the founding pastor of the Church of the Resurrection in Leawood, one of the largest United Methodist congregations in the country. A former Republican running his first campaign, he turned a race few expected to be close into a toss-up.
Final polls favored Hamilton in a state Trump carried by about 16 points: a Washington Post poll had him up 52% to 43%, Emerson had him up 49% to 45%, and a New York Times/Siena poll had him up 5.
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