Kalshi projects Sherrod Brown (D) will win the 2026 Ohio Senate race, defeating Jon Husted (R). Traders on Kalshi priced Brown's chances at 99%, up from 81% when polls closed. The special-election win flips a Republican-held seat and returns Brown to the Senate after his 2024 loss, leaving Democrats a Senate majority.
These projections do not imply market resolution or that races have been called.
How the market moved
Kalshi's Ohio Senate market, January 2026 to Nov 3, 2026: Democrats opened the year at 37%, and Brown was at 99% at projection.
Husted, appointed in 2025 after JD Vance became vice president, led the market for most of the cycle until Brown pulled ahead in August 2026.
Sept 30, 2026: Brown climbed nearly 10 points in three weeks to 61%
Oct 27, 2026: Brown held at 68% as early votes topped 1.2 million
Final polls mostly favored Brown: New York Times/Siena had him up 49% to 44% and AtlasIntel had him up 7.5 points, while Emerson had Husted up 3.
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