Kalshi projects Jon Ossoff (D) will win the 2026 Georgia Senate race, defeating Mike Collins (R). Traders on Kalshi priced Ossoff's chances at 99%, up from 98% when polls closed. Ossoff's projected win gives him a second term, holds the seat for Democrats and leaves them 4 net pickups short of a majority.
This projection does not imply market resolution or that the race has been called.
How the market moved
Kalshi's Georgia Senate market, January to Nov 3: Ossoff opened the year at 76% and was at 99% at projection.
Ossoff was the only Democratic senator up for reelection in a state Trump won in 2024, but traders favored him all year as Republicans worked through a crowded primary and runoff.
The polls pointed the same way: an Atlanta Journal-Constitution and University of Georgia poll had Ossoff up 8 points.
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