Kalshi projects Roy Cooper (D) will win the 2026 North Carolina Senate race, defeating Michael Whatley (R). Traders on Kalshi priced Cooper's chances at 99%, up from 98% when polls closed. The win flips a Republican-held seat, the first Democratic Senate win in North Carolina since 2008, and leaves Democrats 3 net pickups short of a majority.
This projection does not imply market resolution or that the race has been called.
How the market moved
Kalshi's North Carolina Senate market, January to Nov 3: Democrats opened the year at 77%, and Cooper was at 99% at projection.
Cooper, a two-term former governor, was the market favorite all year against Whatley, a former Republican National Committee chair making his first run for office.
Polls agreed with the market: an Elon University poll had Cooper up 13 points, and Kalshi's polling average showed him ahead by about 9.8.
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