Kalshi projects Byron Donalds (R) will win the 2026 Florida governor race, defeating David Jolly (D). Traders on Kalshi priced Donalds' chances at 99%, up from 66% when polls closed. Donalds' win keeps the governorship in Republican hands, where it has been since 1999.
This projection does not imply market resolution or that the race has been called.
How the market moved
Kalshi's Florida governor market, October 2025 to Nov 3: Republicans were at 92% in October 2025, and Donalds was at 99% at projection.
Donalds, a congressman, and Jolly, a former Republican congressman who became a Democrat, ran to succeed term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Oct 17, 2025: Republicans were at 92% to keep the governorship
Kalshi's polling average had Donalds ahead 48.1% to 43.4%, and its margin market forecast a Republican win of about 2.3 points.
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