The big game in Santa Clara is under three weeks away, but before that, the league will announce its annual awards, such as AP Most Valuable Player, Offensive Player of the Year, Defensive Rookie of the Year and more.
The AP Defensive Rookie of the Year (DROY) market at Kalshi has offered an especially interesting race this season. Despite starting the campaign priced at just 4%, Cleveland linebacker Carson Schwesinger is now a strong favorite to be named as the next DROY.
Keep in mind, several publications give out a Defensive Rookie of the Year award, but Kalshi’s market here is solely dependent on results from the Associated Press.
Let’s dive into pro football’s DROY market at Kalshi.
Not trading advice. This article is for informational purposes only. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NFL or Super Bowl LX.
As aforementioned, Kalshi’s traders now have Carson Schwesinger listed at 93¢ to win the DROY. This comes after Schwesinger showed incredible leadership and energy. He flew around the gridiron to make a whopping 156 combined tackles this year. That number paced Cleveland as well as all rookies in 2025. Additionally, it landed as an all-time top-five mark for any rookie.
Schwesinger, a second-round draftee out of UCLA, acted as more than just a tackling machine this year. He also showcased quality skills and speed in coverage. Throughout 16 games played, Schwesinger tallied three passes defended, two interceptions and 11 TFL.
To make matters more impressive, Schwesinger dealt with a high ankle sprain for much of the campaign. Cleveland was eventually forced to put the star middle linebacker on injured reserve in late December. Schwesinger’s numbers would be even higher had he played in the regular-season finale.
Schwesinger saw his largest jump in the DROY market between Weeks 11 and 12. On November 16, he showed a 38% winning likelihood here. After his 11-tackle performance versus Baltimore (that also included an interception), his clip shot up to 87% by November 20.
After just one season as a pro, Seattle safety Nick Emmanwori might be the most dynamic defender in the league. Kalshi’s traders currently have Emmanwori priced at only 7% to win Defensive Rookie of the Year, but rest assured, he is a difference-making athlete.
Emmanwori lined up all over the formation for Seattle, registering 81 total tackles (nine TFL) in 14 games played. He stands at 6-foot-3, 220 pounds, which allows him to thrive both in coverage and the tackle box. Emmanwori did well to compile 11 passes defended, making pivotal plays on a weekly basis.
A second round selection from the University of South Carolina, Emmanwori has been “the straw that stirs the drink” for Seattle: a team that is presently the big-game favorite. His versatility is a major reason why Seattle’s defense allowed only 17.2 PPG.
Notably, Emmanwori missed most of September with a sprained ankle. Had he played an entire season, this market would likely differ from its present state. Emmanwori’s peak pricing occurred on November 3, reflecting 40¢. That followed his six-tackle day against Washington in Week 9.
Atlanta defensive end James Pearce, Jr. is another player to monitor over pro football’s award season. As it is now, Pearce is tagged with a 2% probability at Kalshi to win the upcoming DROY accolade.
Pearce has every physical tool to thrive in this league. In 2025, the 6-foot-5 edge rusher produced 10.5 quarterback sacks, which paced all rookies. He also contributed 26 tackles, five pass deflections, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery.
Despite starting only three contests, Pearce saw action in all 17 games as a rookie. Fortunately, Atlanta has solid talent in the trenches around Pearce, which will allow him to work in favorable spots against opposing offensive linemen.
Pearce saw his DROY market peak of 23¢ on December 15. He is now a long shot for the award, but the future is wonderfully bright for the first-rounder from the University of Tennessee.
The field
After Schwesinger, Emmanwori and Pearce, New York outside linebacker Abdul Carter and Atlanta safety Xavier Watts are the two remaining DROY finalists. Incidentally, both Carter and Watts display a winning likelihood under one percent at Kalshi.
Carter — the third-overall pick from Penn State — opened the season as the market favorite, reflecting a 40% winning chance. However, Carter showcased inconsistent play in 2025, and as such, his stock continually dwindled following Week 9.
The takeaway
An interior linebacker has not been named as the AP Defensive Rookie of the Year since 2018-19 (Shaq Leonard). Regardless, Cleveland’s Schwesinger showcased a level of prowess and consistency that probably can’t be ignored.
Intriguingly, Kalshi predicts that the AP Defensive Player of the Year will also come from Cleveland. Pass rusher Myles Garrett churned out a record-breaking campaign in 2025.
Garrett now shows a 99% likelihood to win his second DPOY designation, but he and Schwesinger have the opportunity to do something quite rare. Only once has the DPOY and DROY been awarded to members of the same team during the same season. That happened in 1981, when linebacker Lawrence Taylor won both for New York.
The Defensive Rookie of the Year (and other awards) will be announced on Thursday, February 5 at the Palace of Fine Arts in San Francisco.
(Which brands will advertise during the Big Game 2026? See Kalshi’s markets here.)
Kalshi markets now forecast:
2025-26 AP Defensive Rookie of the Year:
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